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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Japan is investing $36 billion specifically into US "oil, gas, and critical mineral projects," including a massive natural gas facility in Ohio and a crude export hub in Texas. This represents a massive, government-mandated capital injection directly into the US energy and industrial base. The "45-day" funding requirement ensures this liquidity hits the market rapidly rather than being delayed by bureaucracy. The construction of the "largest" gas facility in the US will drive significant revenue for infrastructure builders and energy service providers in these regions. LONG US Energy Infrastructure and Critical Minerals sectors as the direct recipients of this inbound FDI. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approval could stall the deployment of funds; the 90/10 profit split long-term is less favorable for the Japanese investors, potentially reducing their incentive to manage efficiently post-recoupment. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan, US Reach $36 Billion Gas, Mineral Proj...
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Feb 18, 2026
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WATCH
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Japanese exports to the US fell 5% in January, and the country faces a "higher tariff" threat if they do not fund these projects within 45 days of announcement. While Japanese global exports are rising, the US relationship is under pressure. This deal is effectively a "pay-to-play" agreement where Japan must invest capex to avoid tariffs. If they miss the 45-day funding window, tariff implementation would hurt Japanese exporters significantly. WATCH Japanese markets for confirmation of funding; failure to execute could trigger a bearish tariff event. Supreme Court rulings on broader tariffs (mentioned in the video regarding EPA tariffs) could complicate the trade environment regardless of this specific deal. |
Bloomberg Markets
Japan, US Reach $36 Billion Gas, Mineral Proj...
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Feb 18, 2026
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LONG
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Japan is investing $36 Billion in US energy projects, including a natural gas plant in Ohio and oil export facilities in the Gulf. This is a direct injection of capital into US energy infrastructure. It validates the "Energy Security" theme and guarantees demand for US LNG and fossil fuels. LONG. US Energy infrastructure is a beneficiary of geopolitical alignment with Japan. Regulatory hurdles or delays in project approvals. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/18/2026...
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Feb 17, 2026
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SHORT
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The U.S. and Iran are making progress on nuclear talks in Geneva. Oil prices fell 2.5% on the news. Geopolitical risk premiums are being priced out of the oil market. If a deal is reached, Iranian supply remains online and disruption risks in the Strait of Hormuz decrease. Short Oil (BRENT/WTI). Talks collapse; Israel/Iran conflict re-escalates suddenly. |
Bloomberg Markets
Open Interest 2/17/2026...
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Feb 11, 2026
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LONG
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President Trump floated the idea of sending a "second armada" (aircraft carrier group) to the Middle East. Netanyahu is presenting intelligence on Iran's ballistic missile program, and Lissner notes that while a strike isn't imminent *today*, significant military activity is expected once that second carrier group arrives. "Second Armada" = Logistics, hardware, and munitions expenditure. The explicit mention of Iran's ballistic missile program suggests future kinetic action or enhanced defense spending on interceptors (Iron Dome/Arrow equivalents). This flow of military assets directly benefits defense prime contractors. LONG. Geopolitical risk premiums are being repriced higher with the movement of heavy naval assets. Diplomatic breakthrough (low probability given the rhetoric) or de-escalation. |
Bloomberg Markets
Strong Jobs Report Curbs Fed-Cut Bets | Balan...
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